Dan Rayburn has some interesting thoughts on Akamai being downgraded because of competitive concerns over AT&T.  Not to put too fine a point on it but if Dan hasn’t found AT&T in the CDN business he hasn’t been looking in the right places.  When I was responsible for which CDNs to use on the Nine Systems overlay solution there were several months where we utilized over 80TB of delivery from AT&T’s ICDS (Internet Content Delivery Service) product.  The majority of this was in streaming services.  During 2004 and 2005 we used over 20TB of CDN service from AT&T pretty much every month and it was generally much more than that.  We also had to compete against them in large accounts.  They certainly had shortcomings but it would be unwise to think that they can’t deliver content.  They also have a large sales and marketing infrastructure and are able to leverage their existing relationships with many corporations who also need CDN services in addition to their other services.  If AT&T decides to actually make such a move and puts the resources behind it I would worry more about them than I would about Level 3.  Though I don’t really think that either is that big a threat to Akamai and I agree that the downgrade was unwarranted.   Nor do I think that it would be wise for AT&T to pick up LimeLight.  Frankly I don’t think that Limelight has enough compelling, proprietary technology to make it worth it and AT&T certainly doesn’t need the network capacity.  They have existing peering relationship with basically everyone.  Thus, it’s not as though they’re going to be blocked in delivering content to end users. What they should do is pick up a smaller company that has the expertise that they’re missing.  Specifically around creating value added applications to enable their customers to be more successful.  Things like Digital Right Management, Commerce, Content Management, Reporting and Syndication.  I can think of a couple.  The delivery itself is a commodity business these days and margins are being driven ever downward.  The value added apps are likely to be the best way to maintain reasonable margins.  Akamai had a great opportunity to do this with the acquisition of Nine Systems but frankly I think that they squandered it because it didn’t fit the model that they were used to.
As a disclosure I do own shares of Akamai, which probably aren’t helped by the above.